Analysis of various odds adjustments (Part 2)
Part 1 introduced how to analyze the odds when the odds do not change, but in reality, most of the game odds will change, and most of the odds of all betting companies are adjusted in one direction, which is very tacit. Let's first introduce the situation where the odds are all adjusted to the direction of the strong team, that is, the winning odds of the strong team are consistently reduced. Today we will introduce two situations:
1. while reducing the winning odds of a strong team, basically keep the odds of drawing or slightly lower the odds of drawing, but at a normal level. For example, Belgium played away against Denmark in the UEFA Euro Cup group match, at that time, due to the injury of the Danish midfielder Eriksson, Denmark's strength declined, and Belgium had a clear advantage. But the odds for the Belgian away win in that game were only slightly lowered, the draw odds of each company basically remained at the normal 3.25, the Asian handicap rose to Belgium -0.5 and kept it until the start of the game, because many news have reported that Belgium will put De Bruyne and Hazard on the bench in order to pay tribute to Eriksson. In this context, with such odds and such an Asian handicap, it is easy for bettors to bet on draw, but the final result was Belgium's 2:1 reversal to win. In the games of Euro Cup or La Liga Atletico Madrid, when the home odds are 2.0, the normal odd for a draw are around 3.25, which is generally not too high.
There is an exception to this situation, when the odds of draws are highest, such as 2.3(Win)-3.4(Draw)-2.9(Loss) is adjusted to 2.2(Win)-3.3(Draw)-3.2(Loss), in this case, draws cannot be ruled out, and the more the two teams usually have draw, the more likely draw will occur, or the home team's state is obviously better than the away team's, it is also a situation where there are many draws. This is the same as the situation introduced in the previous article, which is all "reverse thinking", because bettors always feel that even though the odds for draws are significantly lowered, they are still the highest among wins, draws and losses, of course, it is impossible to draw, and the draws are often ruled out first, which are wrong. If the odds of 2.3(Win)-3.4(Draw)-2.9(Loss) is adjusted to 2.2(Win)-3.2(Draw)-3.3(Loss), and the odds of draw are lower than the odds of away win, then a tie is rarely played. Think carefully, everyone.
二，While reducing the winning odds of a strong team, the odds of draws are basically kept at a very low level. For example, in the Euro Cup group match between Switzerland and Wales, due to the differences in team strength and state, most bettors are optimistic about Switzerland. The odds for Switzerland to win have been lowered from 2.3 to 2.15, and the odds for draw have always been kept at a very low level of about 3.0. Generally speaking, the 2.15 odds for winning in international events like the Euro Cup should match the odds for a draw of around 3.2. The Premier League, Eredivisie, and Norway Eliteserien League are even higher. The odds for a draw at 3.0 in this game are still very low, and the result is indeed a draw.
Everyone must analyze whether the odds of a strong team can occupy absolute strength, and at what level is the odds of a draw controlled. You have to analyze carefully to see if you can rule out home wins and away wins, and finally a draw can be determined. If you feel very hesitant, you'd better give up this match.
With the above two adjustment methods, since it is necessary to reduce the winning odds of the dominant team while lowering the draw odds, it is bound to increase the underdog odds by a large margin, in this case, the possibility of upset is basically within 8%. Because bettors who like the underdogs almost have very strong reverse thinking, the more they adjust in this way, the more they feel that there is a problem, and the more often they will bet for the underdogs. Betting companies all over the world have very powerful "betting psychoanalysis departments", and they know the psychology of bettors who like unpopular ones too well.
The upset in this situation is generally that the strong team's state is obviously depressed, while the weaker team is in good shape. Occasionally, betting companies will use the Internet and media to release news that is beneficial to the dominant team, making people feel that this team must bottom out, and the worst result is draw.
This kind of operation occurs most frequently in the J.League, and it has appeared several times in the Ligue 1, Primeira Liga and South American leagues. It is still relatively rare in the other five major leagues. In this case, many bettor including who usually like the underdogs, they dare not to bet on the underdogs. Because they will think that the dominant team is obviously not in good condition, but it still increases the odds of the weak team so much, they should really not be upset.
This is the "anti-reverse thinking" adopted by betting companies, which disrupts the analysis of bettors' unpopular bets. In the five major leagues and top international competitions, this kind of odds adjustment situation is still recommended for everyone to try not to bet underdogs. This is the probability that we have counted in practice for many years.
To understand the "anti-reverse thinking" in the operation of the betting company, the most important thing is to learn the correct way of thinking. We must never use "reverse thinking" to analyze all games. Many people will check the betting volume of one game displayed on some websites before betting, and which result is the most profitable betting company, then try to bet on this option, which is the most stupid kind of "reverse thinking".
First of all, I would like to ask, where are these websites going to collect such accurate betting volume distribution? It can be said that more than half of the betting volume is not made through legal channels. How to count? There are so many betting companies in the world, and every country and region will have different hot games (especially the national team), how can these websites count all the data? Don't be so naive! Italy v Belgium in the Euro Cup is a typical example., can you win if you buy upsets?
Slowly everyone will find that there can be no formulas that can be used to analyze the true intentions of the betting company. The method is very important, but the most important thing is the correct way of thinking. In the next article, we will continue to discuss other more complicated odds adjustment situations, and the analysis methods and corresponding strategies we should adopt.
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