Analysis of various odds adjustments (Part 5)
This article concludes the series with an introduction to the last two odds adjustments:
The winning odds and the draw odds of the dominant team are increased at the same time, and the odds of the unpopular are lowered.
There are two main reasons why this kind of odds adjustment can really hit an unpopular result:
1. The strength and state of the dominant team are obviously better than the disadvantaged team, and the adjustment range is very large. Assuming that the state of the home team is really sluggish, the betting companies will make tentative adjustments in the early stage. If it is found that it does not attract too much betting volume for the home win, it will increase the amount more recklessly in the later stage. If the tentative adjustment in the early stage has already attracted too many home win bets, in the later stage, the betting companies will suddenly adjust in the direction of the away team. Similar operations appear most in the Elite Serien, Eredivisie, and the MLS, and there are slightly more in the Bundesliga in the five major leagues.
2，The disadvantaged team is in a better state than the dominant team, To make such an adjustment under such circumstances, if the betting company is really optimistic about the unpopular, the adjustment must be relatively large, and the odds of the unpopular must be adjusted to under 3. Because the betting company has accumulated many years of experience, their psychological analysis department has come to a conclusion, odds over 3.0 and under 3.0 when betting on the underdog have very different interests for bettors, odds higher than 3.0 will make the bettor feel satisfied, and once the odds are lower than 2.9, it will make the bettor feel dissatisfied. Although it is only 0.1 worse, it will give the bettor a completely different feeling, t's scientifically based.
In the same way, careful bettors may find that in the handicap with the highest draw odds, the odds of the underdog winning are generally under 3.0, and the betting company would rather control it at 2.9 than raise it to 3. Apart from these two cases, this adjustment resulted in very few matches won by the underdog.
In this adjustment, if the odds of winning the unpopular are always 4.0 or even more than 5.0, we can basically eliminate the unpopular. For example, the odds are often adjusted from 1.7(Win)-3.5(Draw)-4.6(Loss) to 1.75(Win)-3.6(Draw)-4.3(Loss), or 1.6(Win)-3.7(Draw)-5.5(Loss) to 1.65(Win)-3.8(Draw)-5(Loss)，after such an adjustment, the odds of the unpopular are still 4.0 or 5.0, which is by no means a payout that the betting company is willing to accept. Nothing like this has ever happened in the top leagues in so many years
Increases the odds for the dominant team to win, while lowering the odds for a draw and the odds for the underdog to win.
This adjustment is very complicated. This kind of adjustment occurs when the state of the dominant team has declined. How much is the adjustment? Is it really difficult for the dominant team to win? We still have to exclude the calculation one by one from win, draw or loss. If the dominant team is still in good shape, the betting company still makes this adjustment. Unless the team has special circumstances, it is best not to think about it too much with reverse thinking. Special circumstances like Russia vs Belgium in the Euro Cup group stage, at that time, the absolute main players De Bruyne and Hazard were both injured and unable to play, although Belgium is obviously in better shape, the odds of a away win have been greatly increased from 1.75 to 2.0. Because De Bruyne and Hazard are too important for Belgium, especially De Bruyne, the match between Belgium and Denmark can best reflect his importance. Therefore, it is normal for the betting company to make such a large adjustment, and the final result is that Belgium easily defeated Russia 3:0. If there is no major change in the team, the betting company still makes adjustments to raise the odds for the team that is obviously in better shape, then you should be careful first. In the past few years, such adjustments often occurred to deliberately suppress the dominant team, but it has rarely appeared in the past two years.
These odds adjustments introduced in this series of articles are basically encountered when we usually bet, I also introduced in detail the operation strategies and intentions of the betting company under various adjustments, Please analyze and summarize carefully, hoping to help you in actual betting.
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