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Scientists have made a super powerful betting system, even the bookmaker can’t stop them from winning

2021-10-19 11:20:00 2059

It is said that the betting industry loses more and wins less, but such a group of scientists have made a small profit on sports betting companies through a set of mathematical models.

We know that when bookmakers offer odds for sports competitions, they certainly don’t give a random number. These odds are calculated by actuaries based on historical data and complex analysis. Of course, according to the betting The betting company will also adjust the odds in time to ensure stable profits and no loss.



Lisandro Kaunitz, a researcher at the University of Tokyo, and several scholars from other countries, came up with a mathematical model that uses the bookmaker’s own odds to determine bets.

Unlike common betting models that predict results, Kaunitz and his set of models use the odds of the bookmaker.

You know, the odds actually reflect the betting company's expectations for the outcome of the game. For example, in the match between Real Madrid and Barcelona, the average odds given by the betting companies for Real Madrid to win is 2 to 1, indicating that this is a comparison recognized by most bookmakers. Reasonable odds, but if you analyze the return, 5 to 1 is obviously better than 2 to 1.

What Kaunitz's mathematical model does is to track the historical data of the odds of these bookmakers and calculate the average value to find the best distance from the average odds and the high odds as the basis for placing bets. (Interested friends can view the original paper in arxiv)


Well, it doesn't matter if you don't understand it. In short, the bookmaker's own odds provide a reference for Kaunitz's betting.

To test this set of models, the Kaunitz team made simulated bets on nearly 480,000 football matches from 2005 to 2015, with a return rate of 3.5%. Calculated at US$50 per bet, this is equivalent to placing 56435 bets and gaining a profit of US$98,865.

After knowing the truth, Kaunitz decided to play for real and started betting with real money.

In 5 months, they bet a total of 256 times, each bet 50 dollars, the winning rate was 47.2%, the profit was 957.5 dollars, and the 8.5% return rate was higher than the test.



After the bookmakers learned of this, they must not be allowed to do this. However, Kaunitz's model does not exploit any loopholes, and there is no fraud, which makes the bookmaker very helpless, because unless the betting system is turned off, it is impossible to prevent them from continuing to win.

Therefore, the approach taken by the bookmakers is to no longer accept bets from the Kaunitz team, and other companies limit their bets to a minimum of $1.25.

However, Kaunitz's fun obviously does not lie in this. He and his wife had a big meal in Tokyo with the bonus they won from the previous bet.

"We are very excited, but it is worth mentioning that you need to spend a lot of time to do these things." He said in an interview with "New Scientist".


Topic Beginner-GuideBetting-EssentialsBetting-StrategiesFinancial Management