What is the worst betting opportunity
Figuring out how to be a winning sports bettor is hard. But some punters are able to do it. It starts with being able to evaluate games in the right way.
A big part of that is avoiding the mistakes that losing sports bettors make. This list of the worst sports betting advice I've ever heard is a big step in the right direction. In the previous article we have already made it clear Advantages/Disadvantages of Major Domestic Leagues, in this article we will show that those leagues are not worth betting
We mentioned in the earlier section of this page how international teams don’t play that many games together. This is because international tournaments only take place every couple of years, and the qualifying games are spread out over long periods of time. It’s not like club soccer where the players are training together on a daily basis and playing together once or twice a week.
That’s why it’s difficult for teams to make the most out of the talent available to them. To help teams out, there are usually a few weeks set aside each year for international teams to get together and play non-competitive games called friendlies. This gives them extra time to play together and get familiar with each other’s playing styles. It also gives managers the opportunity to assess the players available to them.
Although most betting sites and bookmakers offer betting markets on international friendlies, we’re not going to go into much detail about them here. This is for one simple reason.
International friendlies DON’T typically represent good betting opportunities.
Non-competitive games are notoriously difficult to predict. Even when a team is significantly stronger than their opposition. There’s just no guarantee that they’re going to play to the best of their ability. It’s hard for top players to get motivated in what are essentially meaningless games. International soccer managers also tend to use these friendlies to experiment with different tactics and even different personnel. This makes it even more challenging to assess what’s likely to happen.
We’re not saying you have to avoid betting on these games completely. What you choose to do is entirely up to you. If you do choose to bet on them, we just ask that you keep your stakes small and proceed with caution. It really is difficult to make informed judgments about how they’re going to turn out.
Novelty Soccer Betting Markets
Some bookmakers and betting sites open betting markets that aren’t directly related to individual games or competitions. Here are a couple examples:
Transfer related betting markets
Manager related betting markets
Betting on these markets involves some degree of guesswork. Teams and players get linked with transfer moves all the time in the media. There’s regular media discussion about which manager is going to be fired next, or which manager a team is going to play next. It’s hard to distinguish between what’s pure speculation and what’s somewhat based on fact. So, unless you have access to some insider knowledge, it’s difficult to make informed judgments. We generally recommend ignoring these soccer-betting markets, unless betting just for fun.
With that being said, these markets can represent good value on occasion. How is that possible? It’s simple really!
These markets are usually very small, and just a few wagers can shift the odds significantly.
Because the odds move in such correlation to the weight of money, they very often don’t reflect the true probability of something happening (or not happening). Just knowing this fact can help you determine when to bet on these markets, and when to avoid them.
For example, let’s say there’s a team struggling at the bottom of the league. They’re in the middle of a really poor run of results, and there’s no obvious sign that they’re going to turn things around. This would likely lead to speculation in the media that the manager is at risk of losing his job. This speculation would in turn lead to lots of people betting on him to be the next manager fired. (Yes, bookmakers really do offer markets on this, however distasteful it might seem).
With so many people placing the same wagers, the odds would quickly fall. Any value that was in that market would now be obsolete. Knowing that the odds are only so low because of how many people have bet on this manager to be fired, you sensibly decide to avoid making a bet.
Now, at the same time as all this is going on there’s a top team that’s fallen a little behind in the race for the title. They often get good results, but not often enough to keep up with the league winners. After doing some research, you realize that the owner of this team has a history of firing managers as soon as missing out on the league title becomes inevitable for them. Since the majority of bettors don’t think this manager will be fired next , the odds are quite high. This is a great example of how speculative wagers can present value.
Obviously, this example was very specific and it won’t happen very often. We’ve just used it to highlight the basic principle. Avoiding novelty markets is generally a wise decision, but every now and then some value can be found there. ALWAYS try to take advantage of value, no matter what you’re betting on.
The number of betting opportunities that soccer presents is one reason why this is such a great sport to bet on. There are lots of matches taking place each year, across several competitions. This means the opportunities for finding good spots to get your money down are seemingly endless.
However, please keep in mind that it’s not realistic to keep up to date with ALL the teams taking part in ALL the competitions. Unless you have a lot of available time, you simply won’t be able to do the necessary research and analysis. Chances are you’ll get better results from your betting in the long run if you pick just a small number of leagues and competitions to focus your attention on.